Close your eyes, as the mud is slung
One month to go and it is all out assault – Obama had biscuits with a terrorist on a charity board, and McCain helped out a financial swindler.
Barack Obama accused John McCain of “smear tactics” and said he was not paying enough attention to the economic crisis that has been gripping the US.
John McCain said Mr Obama was “lying” about his ties to the home loan industry and asked what his rival had ever accomplished in government.[BBC News]
Will this mudslinging go into tonight’s Presidential debate? McCain has stated that the gloves are off: “For a guy who has already authored two memoirs, he’s not exactly an open book”. Obama, making it into a prize fight for the White House stated: “We don’t throw the first punch, but we’ll throw the last”.
Yet the window dressing is not as significant as the movement in the polls. The BBC report above states that Obama is 6% ahead in Ohio in the Washington Post poll – a state which if Obama wins then the White House is his.
What the BBC does not mention is the range of polls for Ohio which are: [source]
| Poll | Date | Sample | Obama (D) | McCain (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 09/24 – 10/05 | – | 48.7 | 45.2 | Obama +3.5 |
| FOX News/Rasmussen | 10/05 – 10/05 | 1000 LV | 47 | 48 | McCain +1 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 10/03 – 10/05 | 772 LV | 51 | 45 | Obama +6 |
| Columbus Dispatch* | 09/24 – 10/03 | 2262 LV | 49 | 42 | Obama +7 |
| SurveyUSA | 09/28 – 09/29 | 693 LV | 48 | 49 | McCain +1 |
| Quinnipiac | 09/27 – 09/29 | 825 LV | 50 | 42 | Obama +8 |
| InAdv/PollPosition | 09/29 – 09/29 | 512 LV | 47 | 45 | Obama +2 |
The average has moved up from a 2% lead to 3.5% [blog on battle states]. Yet the wide range with polls (two declaring for McCain) the data that we have suggests that this could be closer then people are letting us think. The result being that everything including the kitchen sink is going to be thrown at the opponent before this election is over.
![Will Obama deliver the K.O. punch tonight?]()
- Will Obama deliver the K.O. punch tonight?
The format of the debate is a town hall with undecided voters especially catered for in the audience. The usual political towing and throwing is likely to turn off such an audience, and in the economic problems and security issues the next President will face seem out of touch, if not surreal. In toss up states, undecided voters that decide to vote could sway the result – if they unevenly break for McCain (my prediction is they will) the battle states would be within grasp.
We want the candidates to be tested, not with quips against each other, but with substance on what will be their guiding principles in office and what they are going to do. The first may be more important than the later as by the time January 2009 comes along the economy may not give scope to the plans that they have.
I have said that by mid October a 10% lead in the polls would give Obama the cushion he needs for a Mccain bounce and the margin of error which I predict could be higher in the polls then they have been for sometime. On the eve of the debate the polls stand:
| Poll | Date | Sample | Obama (D) | McCain (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 09/30 – 10/06 | – | 49.6 | 43.8 | Obama +5.8 |
| Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking | 10/04 – 10/06 | 1237 LV | 48 | 45 | Obama +3 |
| NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl | 10/04 – 10/05 | 658 RV | 49 | 43 | Obama +6 |
| CBS News | 10/03 – 10/05 | 616 LV | 48 | 45 | Obama +3 |
| CNN | 10/03 – 10/05 | 694 LV | 53 | 45 | Obama +8 |
| Gallup Tracking | 10/03 – 10/05 | 2744 RV | 50 | 42 | Obama +8 |
| Rasmussen Tracking | 10/03 – 10/05 | 3000 LV | 52 | 44 | Obama +8 |
| Hotline/FD Tracking | 10/03 – 10/05 | 909 LV | 47 | 41 | Obama +6 |
| Democracy Corps (D) | 10/01 – 10/05 | 1000 LV | 49 | 46 | Obama +3 |
| GW/Battleground Tracking | 09/30 – 10/05 | 800 LV | 50 | 43 | Obama +7 |
Tonight Obama needs to sound like a President – McCain has to land punches to make movement. The US (and the world) needs a leader not a political counter puncher. Yet Obama needs more than just words, he needs to show himself to be a man of action. Or else the lead he has will start to descend nearing polling day.
OTHER BLOGS:
Keating coming back to haunt McCain
Republicans pull out of Michigan – the toss up states matter
